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Member
Posts: 2680
Location: Essexville, MI./Saginaw Bay. | Here's a copy of a thred we have going on my board right now concerning our walleye slump on Saginaw Bay. A posters comments and questions and my answers to them. Some might find it interesting. This bite slump has been on our backs since Late July and has continued till the present day.
Original Post:
Well according to our good ole dnr and about everyone else but me they all migrated to the cooler waters somewhere? But evidentley they liked it their so much they forgot to follow the cool water back. Everybody keeps waiting for them but they ain't coming back. There will be a few fish around this spring as always from the river run,but,but but,but the good ole days are over til we get some plants going again. And if people think different its going to be a hella of a wait for them. The dnr just had the 2nd worst salmon return in 30 years to the little manistee weir, all because we don't need to plant them anymore I quote they are naturally reproducing every where (yea right) same way with the wally's been 5 years now that the rearing ponds are offline. 3" a year we are seeing the end of our fish right now in the few 14-15 inchers that are out there we are in TROUBLE now with the few fish we have coming up the big year classes we had everywhere for years are all depleted so to say. Sorry for my honest opinion on this subject no ones seems to agree but I have seen this coming for 3 years now ask everyone who fishes with us, been telling everyone we are missing about 2 or 3 year classes of fish that are just not there this happens when we have no plants and bad spawning years look at erie right now same thing just saw memo other day where fish are so low that state's are thinking more closures, limits and regulations will probably be coming forth, that used to be 10 fish a day at 13" too! A bad spawning year for whatever reasons will sure put dents in the populations. Sorry for the rant but it's just the way I see it. I'm just and average fisherperson who's been fishing a long time in many different senerios, I've seen and heard it all from some good biologists over the years and some not so good ones we have right now!!!!!
My answer:
There is a long view of what's going on and a short view. I've often found that long views (including historic records or simple factual recollections) give more reliable information of what might be happening right now then what happend in the past. This is not always the final case, but often is when variables change or the parameters adjusted in Nature. Sounds scientific but it is not. Lets start with a specie of fish never planted by the DNRE, like perch.
History: Great Lakes Water tables high and cloudy, Perch spawning locations, cover and conditions ideal. Perch size and numbers up the Ying Yang.
Now: Water Table low and clear. Zebra mussles pleantiful. Cormorants return in force finding easy meals. Ditches and cuts dry as a bone. Not so many perch any more.
This year perch numbers and fishing success for them seems to be up slightly. Why? Nothing seems to have changed in Nature that we can physically see or observe with the naked eye. Maybe it is that the walleye numbers are down creating less forage pressure on the small perch populations. Or maybe because the other baitfish numbers are up, giving the perch themselves more forage, while making the perch healthier and more numerous. And with more baitfish in the system, they are less likely themselves to be preyed apon. Perch are in fact the less desired of the baitfish species by walleyes, as they prefer (along with many other predators) soft Rayed, oily, high in fat species like shad, smelt, shiners and goby's. Species that easily slide down the ol' gullet without getting caught in their throat.
Last year the successful fall walleye fishing on the bay was off the charts. But this was not something that happened every year that I can remember. In fact, last year was one of a kind IMV. I've been fishing for walleyes for 50+ years, so I have some experience with their habits. I've also been fishing the Bay and the rivers for walleyes almost 30 years, since their first reintroduction and population return. We were all alone back in 1984 on opening day (which was May 15th back then) on the Tittabawassee River, catching our limits trolling (of all things) a Red Horse colored Tadpolly. And I also remember many early September days on that river over the years catching walleyes like crazy. But those specific dates and the natural water and weather patterns they brought cannot always be duplicated from one year to the next. The conditions and the environment changes virtually every year. To many fishermen fish dates and not conditions to try and duplicate their historic success. I'm not saying fishing time-tables are not worth remembering, just not reliable all the time.
What's going on right now and since late July this past summer IMV just may be because of having fewer walleyes in the system. Maybe stopping the walleye plants was a bad idea that will come back and bite us on the Azz. I, myself wondered about, contacted and complained about, and thought stopping the plantings cold turkey might not be a good idea. But I believe the natural spawning numbers are high, because I've seen the walleye fry in the tens of thousands around the boats ramp on the Tittabawassee in early to mid-May. Of course a fry's survival after leaving the rivers protection is tentative at best, once they hit the Big waters of the Bay and Lake. But I also believe the DNRE Trawl results showing that their overall survival is strong. I also know that some do not believe anything the DNRE says about anything. Why would they lie about this?
Basically IMO the DNRE run what might be considered a business. They have and are responsible for a product that about a million customers in our's and other states use yearly. All the tests, samples and data they take are what tells them what shape their product is in, how their business is running and keeps it's employees working. If they could manually and timely adjust the health and productive numbers of their product for their customers, I'm positive they would. The bad part is they have only slight control over their product, which are the free-roaming live fish, birds and animals we all hunt and fish for.
Now, imagine selling trucks for a living, but you only sell one truck at a time. And you also use this one truck for your own needs. A customer comes in and wants to see and test drive the truck your selling. You and he look for this truck on the lot, but this truck is nowhere to be found. It's just not where it's supposed to be right now. Seems your wife has taken the truck some place else without telling you, to buy groceries. What do you think that customer is going to think and say about that?
Fallow up Question:
So, does the DNR have any thoughts on why the "truck's not where it's supposed to be right now"? You'd have to believe they're still out in the big water right? I know the Bay was very warm this Summer but certainly is back to normal by now. Could the excessive weed growth this Summer have anything to do with it. You certainly wouldn't think so.
Answer:
I'm sure the DNRE only knows as much about why the walleyes disappeared from the inner Bay or simply quit biting as we do. If all the fish and animals had a rational thinking brains like us, we could figure out the what, why and when they do the things they do. But they are instinctive and react simply to and for comfort and survival. Nothing we think we've learned from them can be counted on from one year to the next. We think we can because we tend and prefer to rationalize everything. The fish both teach us something new and dispell some things we thought we knew about them every year.
Edited by walleye express 11/5/2010 8:55 AM
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Member
Posts: 2680
Location: Essexville, MI./Saginaw Bay. | Dan:
Sorry I have taken so long to get back to you. Things are just busy crazy here. I was interested to read the post and your reply. Your reply was good. Let me address some of the original questions.
There seems to be no question that there are fewer walleyes in the bay presently than what we were used to the last few years. The fishermen have seen that, we saw that begin with our annual netting survey last year and again this year. I suspect our creel survey results (once available for this year) will show the same thing. Shortly here, we’ll be able to put some hard numbers on it. Attached are some graphics that may help. You’ll see from them that as of last year (2009) the down turn in the fishery was not particularly evident. Again, we’ll have the 2010 numbers from the creel survey sometime this winter. You can see that our gillnet survey (that we use to monitor the trends in the fishery) detected a downturn in 2009. I am still crunching the numbers from this past falls survey. It looks like they are similar to 2009 or a bit better. Also attached is the trends in the trawl catch rate of YOY walleye including the 2010 number (although its preliminary, these numbers have not been finalized). So back to my main points.
Yes it appears there are fewer walleyes lately than in recent years, but look where we are compared to the long term. We have been enjoying record numbers and now we are getting used to them and expecting them all the time. By long term averages we are still doing phenomenally. Still I understand that we don’t want to go back to those old days of low catch rates. What I am saying is that we have been living through a transitional period which may not be reflective of what we should expect for the new equilibrium. Often when a species flourishes for whatever reason, it rockets up to extremely high numbers and then settles down to more sustainable numbers (at some lower level). This might be part of what’s going on, in that the regular density-dependent factors are simply moderating the production of the walleye population (and fishery). Put another way, walleye may have “over-shot” their capacity and now they are coming down to a more long term average in line with the capacity of the habitat and prey base.
Walleye stocking is not the answer. Look at the trawl catch rates. They are still huge. Walleye are still naturally reproducing like gang-busters. We couldn’t even produce enough fingerlings in our rearing ponds to make up 10% of that. If any thing, stocking would only further limit survival of YOY by creating more competition. What’s happening to our walleyes is something after their hatch, after their fall YOY life stage.
Out migration is an appealing explanation and almost certainly part of it. We see lots of tagged Saginaw Bay walleyes else where in the lake. The warmer temps from this summer may have pushed them out. Plus recently learning that we have a new and very strong rainbow smelt year class in Lake Huron. Maybe they have found this prey base and are less inclined to return to the bay? Hard saying.
Also we have seen how the exploitation rate (proportion of all walleyes taken by anglers) has increased faster than the walleye population. This means that the fishery has expanded faster than the walleye population. So part of what is going on is that we have fewer walleyes because you savvy guys caught so many of them. They are probably more vulnerable (hungrier) at high abundance than in the past. On the whole, the exploitation rate is not at dangerous levels but it appears (at least this year) that the pace of the fishery may have outstripped the expansion of the walleye population.
We have the new walleye telemetry study under way. We will be implanting transmitters in walleyes this coming spring to monitor their movement. We have placed many hydrophones on the bottom of the bay to monitor their movement, especially their outmigration so we can learn more about that. MSU also has a study of commercial fishery by-catch/by-kill of walleye in the bay. That is undoubtedly another sink for walleye losses and we’ve never had good numbers on how many are killed by commercial fishing. That will be an interesting study to see the results from. I will say, however, that there is no reason to believe that the % killed by commercial fishing is any greater now than for the last several decades so I’m not necessarily saying that’s the source of the decline, just another source of losses that we are about to learn more about.
Mean while, we are keeping up with our annual fish community netting survey and creel survey. These surveys have been the source of our longest term and best information about what’s going on. We also have a number of other studies taking place that are related including some modeling work on the walleye population and food habit studies. So while we have many questions, we should be learning a lot more in the near future. Mean while, there are still threats to the bay’s walleye population. Habitat degradation, particularly in the form of dams remains a serious limitation to walleye natural reproduction.
The Fisheries Division of the MDNRE is very committed to the Saginaw Bay fish community and its fisheries. That is evidenced by the amount of investment that has been going on there. Still, we face some serious challenges in the way of budget shrinkage and staff losses. I won’t go on about that but suffice to say that its getting harder and harder to do what everyone wants and expects. We are loosing a lot of staff right now to the early retirements and its unclear when or if those staff will be replaced. Be assured, that those of us who remain are working very hard to optimally manage the walleye population/fishery and all the fisheries of the bay. We are grateful for the concern and ownership the stakeholders feel for this tremendous resource.
Attachments
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 abundancetrends.jpg (106KB - 136 downloads)
catchrate.jpg (64KB - 127 downloads)
harvest.jpg (65KB - 131 downloads)
trawl.jpg (25KB - 118 downloads)
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